For our NHL Social Media Equity Rankings, please click here.
A quick search of the Internet about who has the best fans in any sport will lead to multiple articles and rankings. These rankings tend to rely a lot on personal opinion, and very little on any type of analysis. The best of these studies tend to use a little bit of data concerning metrics like attendance, or maybe how many “likes” the team has on Facebook. Occasionally, the ranking will be some type of weighted average of several pieces of data. The vast majority of these approaches are badly flawed. In the case of looking at raw numbers such as attendance, a frequent mistake is to ignore that attendance is driven by winning rates. If this is the case, then such a study inflates winning teams’ fan bases by including bandwagon fans. In the case of using a weighted average of multiple criteria, we still have the problem of not accounting for winning rates, but we also have the problem that the “weights” for each factor tend to be arbitrary.
What we do in our rankings is to use a wide variety of data and some statistical modeling to get around these issues. We use something called a revenue premium approach to assess a team’s fan equity (value of the fan base). The basic procedure begins with a statistical model that predicts a team’s box office revenues based on market potential (population and median income), team quality (winning rates) and other factors (such as team payroll). We then compare the predictions from this model with each team’s approximate box office revenues to determine which teams over and under perform. More details on the approach are available here. In today’s post, we rank NHL fan bases using the above approach. Later in the week, we will present results that rank teams based on social media equity (rather than the economic value of the fan base).
Using the past three years of results, we find that the best NHL fan bases live north of the border. In first place, we have the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Leafs pack the fans in despite charging the highest prices in the league. The key point is that while the Leafs have been up and down the last few seasons, the fans continue to show up and pay premium prices.
In second and third place, we have Edmonton and Montreal. The Oilers ranking second may be a bit of a surprise given some of their recent struggles on the ice. But Edmonton continues to sell out their building on a regular basis, while charging fairly high prices and losing more than half their games in recent seasons. Remember, Edmonton does this with a metro area population that barely exceeds one million. The Canadiens are number three on the list. A comparison between the Canadiens and the Chicago Blackhawks might be instructive. These two clubs are fairly similar in box office performance. The Hawks sell a few more tickets but Montreal charges higher prices. But, Montreal achieves their results in a metro area a third the size of Chicago’s, and without being one of the best teams in the league.
In positions 4 through 6 we finally see the Americans represented. The Penguins come in 4th, the Rangers 5th and the Flyers 6th. Our initial reaction to these results was that Pittsburgh is a heck of a professional sports city. The Steelers were the leaders in our study of social media equity in the NFL. The Rangers and the Flyers are both solid franchises across all dimensions.
One of our favorite parts of doing these rankings is determining the bottom five. It’s fun because we typically get to be insulted by folks from all over (thankfully, the Trashers left Atlanta so we are spared the local abuse*). San Jose and Anaheim are 5th and 4th from the bottom, respectively. Californians seem to be the opposite of Canadians (take it as a compliment or insult). Third from the bottom is the Phoenix franchise (We’re not even sure of their name). Second from the bottom we have the Ottawa Senators. This is just embarrassing for a Canadian team. Let us respond to the Ottawa fans right now. We don’t care that you sell out – read the description of the method. In last place, we have Dallas. Why would anyone move a hockey team from Minnesota to Dallas?
*On a related note, the Winnipeg Jets are excluded from the rankings because the team moved from Atlanta during the period of the study.
Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2013.