Last week, we published our ranking of NHL Team Fan Equity. We have coined the term “Fan Equity” as a sports specific version of customer equity. This metric is driven by “economic” measures of loyalty. But, we do realize that a fan base also includes factors such as passion and engagement that may be (to some extent) overlooked in an economically driven ranking.
As a second look at fan base quality in the NHL, we use an approach that removes factors such as non-revenue maximizing pricing policies and capacity constraints that limit our ability to measure the customer equity of a hockey team. The ranking we present today is based on what we call “Social Media Equity”. The ranking is developed as follows: First we collect information on each team’s social media presence such as the number of Twitter followers and Facebook likes. We then develop a statistical model that quantifies the relationship between these social media metrics and measures of performance such as the team’s winning percentage for the last three years, and market factors including median income and metro area population. We also include each team’s number of tweets in the model. We then look at the difference between predicted social media followers and actual social media followers. This delta between predicted and actual followers is reflective of Social Media Equity.
This social media based rankings has both pluses and minuses. On the plus side, fan interest is not constraint by either high prices or stadium capacity. On the negative side, while liking a team on Facebook or following them on Twitter shows fan interest, we can’t economically quantify this interest (these teams are businesses after all).
The number one team in our social media ranking is the Detroit Red Wings. This is not a surprise, as the common wisdom is that the Red Wings are the number one team in Detroit (at least according to Professor Lewis’ sister in law). The Red Wings have great social media presence on both Facebook and Twitter. In positions 2 through 5 we have the Bruins, Devils, Flyers and Avalanche. These are all big time fan bases with the exception of the Avalanche (actually we are not sure about the Devils but there was an episode of Seinfeld involving face painters so we assume Devils’ fans are indeed very passionate).
The Avalanche is where the story gets interesting. While the Avalanche rank only 21st in the league in Twitter followers and 12th in terms of Facebook likes, they have achieved these results in a relatively small market, while often struggling on the ice (16-25 last year). Our model suggests that Denver is potentially a strong hockey market.
The Social Media Equity results are a bit different than the economically driven results of last week. Notably, the Canadian teams drop quite a bit. In the social media rankings, Montreal finishes 6th, Vancouver 8th and Toronto 10th. We can only speculate as to why the results differ. Perhaps the previous results overrate the fan bases of the Canadian teams because Canadians are too nice to balk at high prices.
At the bottom of our list we have Tampa Bay in 5th from the bottom, Ottawa in 4th, the Kings in 3rd, Columbus in 2nd and Anaheim in last place. Later in the year we will combine our various rankings to come up with a list of the best and worst sports cities. We expect that Tampa Bay will be a front runner for one of those lists. Ottawa performed similarly poorly in the economics based list so the verdict is in, Ottawa is the worst hockey city in Canada. LA has a decent social media presence, but when we adjust for team performance and market size the results are not pretty. Finally, perhaps Columbus should call themselves the “Buckeyes” rather than Blue Jackets.
The Winnipeg Jets are excluded from the rankings because the team moved from Atlanta during the period of the study.
Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2013.