We started the Emory Sports Marketing Analytics blog back in March of last year. Our goal was to bring analytics to the world of sports business. To put a finishing touch on 2013, we are going to present our rankings of the best and worst sports fans by city. These rankings are based on our revenue premium model of fan equity and our analyses of social media equity.
For our rankings, we have divided cities into categories based on how many of the four major sports (NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL) have franchises representing the city. This categorization does introduce a bit of oddness since Los Angeles becomes a “three-sport” city. Another tough issue is how to treat teams like the Packers. Is Green Bay a one-sport city or is Milwaukee as three-sport city (we decided that we would treat Milwaukee as a three-sport city)?
Today we reveal our rankings of the four-sport cities, and a summary of the best and worst markets in the other categories (one, two, & three-sports cities). Before the actual rankings, a couple of clarifying comments are in order. The key to our rankings is that we are looking at fan support after controlling for short term variations in team quality and market characteristics. Basically we create statistical models of revenues as a function of quality measures like winning percentage and market potential factors like population. This allows our results to speak how much support fans provide as if market size and winning rates were equal.
The number one team on our four-sport city list is Boston; and it wasn’t even all that close. All of the Boston teams have impressive fan followings. The Red Sox ranked 1st in terms of fan equity and 1st in social equity. The Celtics finished 3rd in the NBA in both our fan and social media equity rankings. The Patriots rank 2nd in fan equity and 3rd in social media equity in the NFL. The Bruins rank relatively low in fan equity (perhaps because they could price higher), but very high in social media equity. Number two on the list is Philadelphia. The Eagles, Phillies and Flyers are all very strong fan bases. The Sixers are weak within the NBA, but the three other sports carry Philly to a second place finish.
The city in third place is likely going to generate Twitter complaints about how clueless we are, and how academics should stay away from sports. We rank the Twin Cities of Minneapolis and Saint Paul as having the third most supportive fans among the four-sport cities. Minneapolis/Saint Paul show great support of the Twins and solid support for the Vikings. The Wild also do surprisingly well in the NHL.
How could Minnesota finish in front of New York and Chicago? It’s because these cities don’t do a great job in terms of supporting all their teams. For example, The Brooklyn Nets perform poorly when market size is considered and the White Sox have very poor support on all metrics. We can hardly wait for the semi-literate Twitter attacks to commence.
At the bottom of the list we have Phoenix. We should note that the Suns perform well and finish 7th in terms of fan equity in the NBA. But beyond that, Phoenix sports are a disaster. In terms of fan equity, the Diamondbacks finish 26th in MLB, the Cardinals 30th in the NFL and the Coyotes 28th in the NHL. As we have learned over the past year, it seems that weather and tradition are what creates a strong fan culture. Perhaps the Phoenix teams overall are too new, and the weather is too warm.
Our other winners and losers are given below with linked infographics that summarize raw data and final rankings.
Mike Lewis & Manish Tripathi, Emory University 2014.